The upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP) and the urgent need for countries to take action on climate change. It highlights the current state of global emissions and the consequences of not meeting the targets set in the Paris Agreement.
The 28th edition of the Conference of the Parties (COP) is taking place in the next fortnight.
The goal of the conference is to get 190 countries to act on reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.
The collective commitment made in Paris in 2015 was to hold global temperatures to no higher than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
Despite this commitment, emissions have actually grown by 1.2% from 2021-22.
If emissions continue at this rate, the world will warm 2.5-3°C by the end of the century.
There have already been 86 instances this year of global temperatures breaching the 1.5°C threshold.
Major economies have agreed on three principles in COP meetings: disproportionate carbon emissions by rapidly industrialized countries, the need to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, and compensation for developing countries adopting cleaner energy sources.
The challenge lies in getting all countries to act on these principles due to mutual suspicion, de-globalization, and fear of political reprisal.
Two major issues expected to be discussed in COP28 are the conclusion of the Global Stocktake and the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund.
There is no clarity on the size of the fund and individual contributions by countries.
COP28 must strive to compel signatories to take definitive action rather than just delivering agreements with caveats.
The upcoming Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It explores the key issues that will be addressed at the conference, such as the Global Stocktake, the question of fossil fuels, adaptation and finance.
The 28th annual Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will take place in Dubai in early December.
The COP is the central place where global climate governance is discussed and decisions are made.
All countries, not just the powerful ones, have a voice at COPs, allowing for discussions on equity and vulnerability.
2023 has seen devastating weather events, such as extreme heat, wildfires, floods, and droughts, making it likely to be the warmest year on record.
Disagreements over a fair and equitable approach to addressing climate change and who will pay for it remain unresolved.
The geopolitical context is not favorable for enhanced cooperation, with tensions between the US and China and conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
Diplomats at the COP face the challenge of addressing an urgent problem under challenging conditions for global cooperation.
COPs often result in a lot of words but fail to lead to concrete actions.
The expectations for Dubai's COP are not mentioned in the article.
The Global Stocktake (GST) is a key part of the Paris Agreement machinery.
The GST assesses aggregate progress in mitigation, adaptation, and support for climate action.
The GST finds that greenhouse gas emission pathways are not on track to limit warming to the Paris targets.
Developing countries argue that the GST should hold developed countries accountable for their past failures in climate action.
Developed countries argue that developing countries will account for the bulk of future emissions and the GST should focus on limiting emissions going forward.
The outcome of this debate will determine future benchmarks for action, including the expectation for developed countries to reach net zero emissions earlier than developing countries.
The GST aims to inform and drive the next round of bottom-up national pledges called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 2025.
There is a debate on whether the GST should be prescriptive and require specific forms of pledges, such as absolute emissions targets and alignment with specific temperature targets.
Some argue that prescription is needed to accelerate progress, but others argue against it, saying it lacks agreement on what each country can fairly be asked to do to limit emissions.
The GST also calls for enhanced implementation of pledges, focusing on actions countries can take now rather than future statements of intent.
The COP is likely to include language calling for countries to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency, as stated in the recent G20 Delhi Leaders' Declaration.
India advocates for a broad focus on all fossil fuels, not just coal, in addressing climate change.
Oil and gas are larger sources of energy in the developed world and important for petrostates like Dubai.
The addition of the word 'unabated' before 'fossil fuel' may allow plants using new technologies to capture emissions, giving fossil fuels a longer lifespan.
COP28 will focus on adaptation and finance, with a 'Global Goal on Adaptation' to be agreed upon.
The question of 'who pays' for adaptation efforts is likely to be prominent, with calls for a doubling of adaptation finance since the last COP.
The establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund is a key issue at COP28.
Fragile consensus has been reached on who will pay into the fund (developed countries) and who will receive (particularly vulnerable countries).
The World Bank has been agreed as an interim host of the fund, but with strict governance guidelines.
The discussion has shifted to a concrete assessment of needs to support mitigation and adaptation, with numbers in the low trillion.
Contentious issues remain around how the funds will be mobilized, including the role of public versus private funds and the need for larger changes in the global financial environment.
Climate change is now a topic of discussion at the geopolitical and geoeconomic high table.
The stakes for countries at COPs are consequential in terms of climate impacts, fossil fuel energy politics, and competitiveness in emergent energy technologies.
The Dubai COP28 will be an important marker in the slow unfolding of global climate politics.
The share of clean and fossil fuel sources in power generation in different countries, including India. It highlights the progress made by countries like China and Brazil in increasing their share of clean energy, as well as the challenges faced by countries like India and Saudi Arabia.
Brazil, South Africa, India, and China are seeking more climate financing and equity through the UNFCCC concept of "common but differentiated responsibilities."
China has reduced its share of fossil fuels in power generation from 82% in 2000 to 65% in 2022, but it still leads the world in both clean and dirty energy.
India's progress in clean energy has been relatively slow, with its share in power production rising from 17% to 23%.
Saudi Arabia has the highest percentage of power produced by fossil fuels among the BRICS nations, with over 99% coming from fossil fuels, 67% of which is from gas.
UAE has improved its clean energy share post-2020 with the inclusion of nuclear fuel in the electricity mix.
Brazil and Ethiopia are the only two countries in BRICS where the share of clean energy in power generation is higher than fossil fuel's share.
Brazil has led negotiations on rules for carbon credit markets and plans to monetize its vast forests.
South Africa secured a $8.5 billion deal to shift from coal to renewable energy but is currently facing a power crisis.
Gujarat and Rajasthan have recorded a decline in the usage of fossil fuel for power generation.
Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh have a higher share of clean energy among the top 15 power-producing states in India.
Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, and Bihar have consistently had a share of more than 90% of fossil fuel in power generation.
Odisha and Punjab have shown an increase in fossil fuel usage in recent years.