The global risks and uncertainties that we can expect in the year 2024. It highlights the challenges to the existing international order and the potential conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Global risks and uncertainties are expected to increase in 2024.
The existing order is being challenged by both supporters and critics of the 'rules based international order'.
The war in Ukraine could become more volatile in 2024.
The outcome of the war in Ukraine may impact the US presidential election and boost Biden's chances if Putin's Russia suffers a decisive defeat.
Ukraine's Zelensky may take desperate measures due to waning support for Ukraine in Europe and elsewhere.
Putin may resort to extreme measures, including the use of nuclear weapons, to secure a victory in Ukraine.
The Middle East is heating up due to Hamas's attack on Israel, which has the potential to escalate further in 2024.
The West's hypocrisy in distinguishing between Hamas's violence and Israel's targeting of troublemakers is not helping the situation.
Geopolitics in West Asia is changing, with Iran, Russia, and China supporting nations in the region, challenging the US's leadership.
The impact of these changes could extend beyond West Asia and affect other regions like the Indo-Pacific.
India's general election is scheduled for mid-2024, and the ruling party is confident about the outcome.
However, there may be unforeseen challenges, especially regarding the economy.
It is important for India to keep track of China and the developments in the region.
Sino-Indian relations will remain stalemated in 2024
China perceives India as part of the US-dominated anti-China alliance
Direct confrontation between India and China is unlikely in 2024
There is a possibility of China taking "adventurist actions" in the Sino-Indian border regions
India's relations with Central Asia may be impacted if the Russia-China axis becomes stronger
India may face an uncertain situation in its immediate neighborhood, with China pressuring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Maldives
India's influence in West Asia is diminishing, except for the United Arab Emirates
India's position in the region will become more tenuous as West Asian countries gravitate towards China and Russia
The internal situation in India is tense and both the ruling and Opposition forces are preparing for a fierce electoral battle.
**Caste loyalties are dominating the political landscape.
Social engineering and social fragmentation are being used to divide social groups.**
There is little to no debate on key issues of common concern.
Artificial Intelligence is expected to play a larger role in enhancing power dynamics.
There is a bias towards a unitary approach to India's Constitution.
Certain parties favor a regimented approach and increased centralization of authority, limiting the power of the states.
The general election outcome is uncertain, but a turbulent period is expected ahead.
Parliament is already in disarray and is expected to continue functioning in this manner throughout 2024.
The recent breach of security in Parliament reflects the prevailing mood and there are no signs of improvement.
Parliament decisions are currently based on brute majority, leading to an absence of give and take.
Governors in many states are showing resistance, worsening the relationship between the states and the Centre.
The nation may be approaching an inflection point in 2024.
The recent Supreme Court judgment upholding the power of the President to abrogate Article 370 could lead to more conflicts.
The judgment considers Article 370 as a transitional provision due to war-like conditions in parts of the country.
Incumbent political parties at the Centre and in the States need to reconsider their approach in the current circumstances.
Opposition parties and Opposition-led State governments often prioritize opposing the Centre over constructive engagement.
State governments have advantages in both political and economic matters that could be utilized.
The Centre needs to recognize the importance of improved Central-State relations and understand that both entities are stronger when they work together.
There is a need for a better understanding of the new forces at play and the new realities of power.
It is uncertain whether these changes will occur by 2024.
It is important to understand the functioning of the Parliament and the role of the Opposition in holding the government accountable. This article highlights the recent winter session of Parliament where the ruling party refused to engage with the Opposition and passed important bills without proper debate.
The 18-day winter session of Parliament ended on December 21.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) refused to engage with the Opposition during the session.
A total of 146 Opposition MPs were suspended, 46 from the Rajya Sabha and 100 from the Lok Sabha.
The suspension was a result of the Opposition's demand for a statement from Union Home Minister Amit Shah regarding a breach of security in the Lok Sabha.
The Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, Mallikarjun Kharge, has criticized the government for the predetermined and premeditated suspension of Opposition MPs.
The Chairs of both the Houses, Jagdeep Dhankhar and Om Birla, were unable to ensure a smooth conduct of the session.
The session saw the passing of several Bills with significant consequences for the country.
The government passed new laws in the absence of a majority of the Opposition members
The laws increase the power of the executive and were passed without a meaningful parliamentary debate
The government refused the Opposition's demand for a statement on the security breach
The government blamed the Opposition for the suspensions and the Speaker and Chairman echoed this position
The alleged mimicry of Mr. Dhankhar by an Opposition MP was a distraction for the ruling party
Mr. Dhankhar called the mimicry an insult to his community
The Opposition invested time and effort in asking for a debate on the security breach
The objective was to derail parliamentary functioning and give the executive a free pass.