India's growth projections and the need for a future growth strategy. It highlights the challenges of deglobalization, the importance of domestic savings, and the need to enhance employment opportunities.
India's growth in 2023-24 is projected to be 7% by the Reserve Bank of India, while the IMF and World Bank have projected it to be 6.3%.
India has achieved a growth of 7.8% and 7.6% in the first two quarters of 2023-24, indicating a broad-based recovery.
The IMF has projected an annual growth rate of 6.3% for India up to 2028-29.
India needs to calibrate its future growth strategy considering the changing global conditions, including the movement towards deglobalization and ongoing geopolitical conflicts.
Many countries, including India, want to reduce their dependence on imported petroleum due to supply uncertainties and price volatility.
India's exports as a share of GDP peaked at 25% in 2013-14 but have fallen to 22.8% in 2022-23, indicating a shift away from the export-led growth strategy.
India needs to evolve its own future growth strategy.
India needs to rely more on domestic growth drivers for sustained 7% plus real growth.
Domestic savings will be critical for achieving and sustaining this growth.
The household sector's savings in financial assets have fallen to 5.1% of GDP in 2022-23 from an average of 7.8% during the pre-COVID-19 period.
This fall in savings may pose a significant risk to India's growth potential.
Surplus household sector financial savings are used by the government and corporate sector to meet their investment demand.
The estimated nominal investment rate in 2022-23 is 29.2% of GDP.
The real investment rate needs to be increased by 2% points to provide investible resources amounting to 35% of GDP.
This will enable a growth of 7% at an Incremental Capital-Output Ratio (ICOR) of 5.
Strategizing enhanced employment is necessary to achieve higher growth.
India's working age population is projected to peak at 68.9% in 2030, while the overall dependency ratio would be at its lowest at 31.2%.
Increased allocation of resources is needed for training and skilling India's growing working age population.
Employment growth is dependent on GDP growth and the structure of output.
The growth rate of the working age population is projected to fall from 1.2% in 2023-24 to 0% in 2048-49.
The worker population ratio increased from 44.1% in 2017-18 to 51.8% in 2022-23, with an average increase of 1.5% points per year.
Non-agricultural growth needs to be high enough to absorb labor released from agriculture, estimated at 45.8% in 2022-23.
The economy should be able to absorb the labor-substituting impact of new technology, including Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Generative AI.
India has committed to reducing total carbon emissions by one billion tonnes between 2021 to 2030 and achieving net zero emissions by 2070.
India's initiatives include the Green Grids Initiative (GGI) and One Sun One World One Grid (OSOWOG), as well as promoting the use of electric vehicles and ethanol-based and hydrogen fuels.
Climate-promoting technological changes may reduce the potential growth rate, but this can be minimized by emphasizing service sector growth.
Adhering to fiscal responsibility targets is important for sustaining growth, with a focus on reducing the combined fiscal deficit and debt to GDP ratios to 6% and 60% respectively.
A growth rate of 6.5% seems feasible in the next two years, partially recovering from the low growth rate during the COVID-19 period.
Factors both domestic and external will adversely affect India's growth performance over the medium term.
Raising savings and investment rates, improving skill acquisition, and adopting an employment-friendly technology mix are key areas of focus to achieve a growth rate of 7% to 7.5%.
The issue of air pollution in India and highlights the failure of the government, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to effectively address this problem despite making promises in their election manifestos. It emphasizes the impact of air pollution on public health, including respiratory diseases and reduced life expectancy.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made promises to address air pollution in their manifesto for the 2014 elections.
The manifesto stated that the party would take climate change mitigation initiatives seriously and work with the global community and institutions.
It also mentioned conducting ecological audits of projects and pollution indexing of cities and townships.
The BJP reiterated their commitment to pollution control in their 2019 manifesto, stating that they have developed better strategies and devices to map pollution levels.
They claimed to have taken effective steps to reduce pollution in major cities, including Delhi.
The party promised to convene the National Clean Air Plan into a Mission and focus on the 102 most polluted cities in the country.
However, despite these promises, the level of pollution in Delhi and other cities remains high, indicating that the promises have not been fulfilled.
39 Indian cities were named in the list of the 50 most polluted cities in the world according to the World Air Quality Report 2022.
Air pollution is the second biggest risk factor for disease in India.
India's air pollution is responsible for the highest number of respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma.
People in these cities have a reduced life expectancy of nine years.
The cost India pays in terms of air pollution is ₹7.91 lakh crore annually.
The National Clean Air Programme, launched in 2019, has been a non-starter due to government negligence.
India is far from meeting the safety standards set by the World Health Organization for PM2.5 concentrations.
The Modi government has made amendments to forest and environment-related legislations that are aimed at the destruction of forests and environment, rather than their protection.
The Great Nicobar Development Plan is causing disastrous impacts on the air, water, and environment conditions of India as a whole.
The Central Vista project, boasted about by the BJP government, has resulted in the loss of tens of thousands of trees in Lutyens' Delhi and has caused unimaginable damage to the air of the capital.
The government has disregarded building laws and found shelter in the outdated Government Buildings Act of 1899 to ensure the Central Vista Project.
Pollution from indiscriminate demolitions and carbon dioxide emissions from an increasing number of vehicles cannot be ignored.
Discussions on air pollution by the government and political forces always revolve around stubble burning and 'irresponsible' farmers.
The greed of the capital and its market-controlled development at the expense of people aligns with Karl Marx's characterization of bourgeois government as the "executive committee for managing the general affairs of the capitalists".
The government needs to take urgent action to address the alarming air pollution situation in the country.
The government should prioritize the protection of people's lives over government profits.
The severe crisis caused by air pollution should be discussed in the winter session of Parliament.
There are successful practices in other countries, such as "wind path forests," that India can learn from.
India's own concept of "Social Forestry" is also worth emulating.
The Prime Minister should call for an all-party meeting to establish a plan for ensuring safe air and environment in India.